Tip 1: What threatens the fall of the ruble
Tip 1: What threatens the fall of the ruble
The crisis in relations between Russia and a number ofWestern countries led by the United States, which began because of the events around Ukraine, led to serious consequences. Along with diplomatic demarches, sharp mutual accusations, economic sanctions began both on one side and on the other. As a result of these actions, and also due to a significant decrease in the cost of oil, the exchange rate of the Russian currency against the US dollar and the Euro has weakened noticeably. What threatens Russia with the fall of the ruble?
In the time that has passed since the collapse of the USSR,Russia closely integrated into the world economy. It sells many types of raw materials abroad, as well as finished products (for example, grain, mineral fertilizers, weapons, engines for missiles). Simultaneously, Russia imports a significant amount of food, computer equipment, software for PCs, machines, medicines, leases (operation with payment by installments) aircraft, etc. Therefore, the fall of the ruble automatically leads to the fact that it is necessary either to spend more money to pay for the above items, or to reduce the purchase of imports. In addition, a "weaker" ruble leads to higher prices for imported products. In any case, this negatively affects the standard of living of Russians.
Many millions of our compatriots are used totravel around the world, relax in foreign resorts, get acquainted with the natural and historical sights of different countries. The cost of foreign tours is paid in rubles, at the exchange rate. In addition, you need to buy some more currency to pay for meals, excursions, entertainment, souvenirs, etc. at the place of rest. And the higher the exchange rate of the foreign currency in relation to the ruble, the greater the amount you have to spend for this. Consequently, the fall of the ruble leads to the fact that foreign voyages become less affordable for Russian citizens.
Finally, the fall of the ruble leads to a negativepsychological influence on many people, inspires them with uncertainty in the morrow, irritability, distrust of the policy pursued by the country's leadership. Especially when you consider that some Russians are well remembered for want and deprivation in the "crazy 90s", as well as the crisis of 2008, when the ruble also fell sharply and prices for food and industrial goods and utilities increased.
Tip 2: Forecasting the ruble for the near future
The devaluation of the ruble in 2014is held by the Central Bank. Only in October, he spent about $ 1 million to support the course. If the country's currency reserves begin to decline at a similar pace, they will not be enough even for a year: according to official data, their volume for today is about 465 billion dollars.
The use of cash reserves in largescale has already occurred this year, in March. The day was called "black Monday". The growth of the crisis in Ukraine led to the need to enter the market with interventions in the amount of about 11 billion US dollars.
It significantly complicates the forecast of the nationalof the currency at the end of 2014, the regulator's statement on the transfer to a freely floating exchange rate. Made almost immediately after the "black Monday" it gave the chance to think that the Central Bank will cease to support the Russian ruble. Consequently, he gets the opportunity to both fall and grow as the bottom reaches.
A little later, Russian President Vladimir Putin said,that the announced free float of the exchange does not mean that the regulator will not look for various measures to support the ruble. Hence, it is not necessary to speak about a complete rejection of currency interventions. In addition, the Central Bank can spend on the stability of the ruble as much as it needs.
Reasons for the fall of the ruble
Russian financiers say that devaluationis a process strongly associated with the dynamics of oil prices. To a certain extent, it is so. But here, too, should pay attention to the sanctions that the West imposed on the ruble: it not only limited the access of Russian companies to the capital market, but also contributed to the intensification of the process of outflow of money from the country.
The value of the Central Bank in the gold and foreign exchange reserves
Experts believe that the CBR's need forthe use of gold and foreign currency reserves is not threatened by them. The main task that the regulator is looking for is not so much support as smoothing out the strong fluctuations. This means that the agency not only sells the currency, but also buys it.
Current currency interventions for todaythe day is not strong. Therefore, they will not lead to a severe depletion of the Russian gold reserves. Thanks to them, Russians will not see sharp negative fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate. Allowing a sharp devaluation under these conditions would not only be inappropriate, but also too dangerous for Russian enterprises.